Monday, October 11, 2004
Electoral College projections.
Earlier in the life of this blog, I linked to the election projection site. It's a state by state, up to date tracking of the electoral college polls. (I like how 'state by state' and 'up to date' rhyme.)
I was looking to see if there were other similar sites out there and if they had conflicting views. I found tripias.com on a google search and the stats are slightly different. I like this tripias site because it gives the poll it got the info. from and the date of the poll for each state.
These two trackers differ by slightly at the moment. The top one has Bush ahead by 10 electoral votes and the bottom one has Kerry ahead by 10 electoral votes. Most notable between the two are Ohio and Nevada, which are red in the first poll and blue in the second.
It seems as if Kerry has more electoral votes sewn up at the moment, but the undecided states really could go either way. Barring something unforeseen, this is really going to come down to the wire.
On a side note, my current home state of New York is the state in which Kerry has the largest lead, roughly 20% at this point, just highlighting the fact that my vote really doesn't count. Thank you electoral college.
I was looking to see if there were other similar sites out there and if they had conflicting views. I found tripias.com on a google search and the stats are slightly different. I like this tripias site because it gives the poll it got the info. from and the date of the poll for each state.
These two trackers differ by slightly at the moment. The top one has Bush ahead by 10 electoral votes and the bottom one has Kerry ahead by 10 electoral votes. Most notable between the two are Ohio and Nevada, which are red in the first poll and blue in the second.
It seems as if Kerry has more electoral votes sewn up at the moment, but the undecided states really could go either way. Barring something unforeseen, this is really going to come down to the wire.
On a side note, my current home state of New York is the state in which Kerry has the largest lead, roughly 20% at this point, just highlighting the fact that my vote really doesn't count. Thank you electoral college.
# posted by ChuckJerry : 10/11/2004 07:34:00 PM
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Wow, it seems like there really are three states that can decide the whole thing: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. It seems like if Kerry can just hold onto Ohio and Penn., he'll win it all.
Wonder how that differs from 2000? Isn't it true that if Gore had won any one more state, incl. New Hampshire, he would've won it last time?
Go Kerry.
Wonder how that differs from 2000? Isn't it true that if Gore had won any one more state, incl. New Hampshire, he would've won it last time?
Go Kerry.
That tripias is ridiculous. (Did I spell that last word correctly?)
It went from Kerry up whatever to Bush killing him.
Either people are mad fickle, or these polls are not representative. (to pararphrase some viewer of Chris Matthews).
It went from Kerry up whatever to Bush killing him.
Either people are mad fickle, or these polls are not representative. (to pararphrase some viewer of Chris Matthews).
The polls are very subject to change. If the polls in one state switch from Kerry 51% Bush 49% to the opposite, then it could mean a change in like 27 electoral votes (like if Florida switched, for example.
Minute changes in a single state can have drastic effects on the entire outcome.
Minute changes in a single state can have drastic effects on the entire outcome.
Looking at the electoral college map referenced here, it is staggering to consider the states that support Bush and the states that support Kerry when they are viewed in light of the looming threat of a terrorist attack.
(This point may take a minute to get across, but I think it is important enough to bear with me here).
Consider the following:
1. The consistently "blue" (i.e. Kerry) states are New York, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, the District of Columbia, etc. In other words, the northeast and California.
2. The consistently "red" (i.e. Bush) states are predominantly in the south and the mid-west (the "heartland," if you will), Kansas, the Dakotas, Montana, Mississippi, Arkansas, etc., etc.
3. Perhaps the most central theme to George Bush's campaign is his ability and determination to protect the United States from another terror attack (by staying on the offensive, hunting down terrorists, etc.).
4. Why, in the world, does this theme play so effectively in states where there is NO CHANCE that there will be a terrorist attack? Is some redneck in Louisiana really that concerned about Ayman Al-Zawahiri taking out the French Quarter? Is Al-Qaeda seriously considering an attack on a South Dakota cornfield? Of course not.
Watch out Kansas, threat level has been raised to Code Red!
5. Where, I might ask, is it most likely that a terrorist attack will occur(indeed, where are the only American cities where Al-Qaeda has ever attacked)? Why, New York and D.C., of course, where JOHN KERRY enjoys his largest lead anywhere in the country. Okay, okay, L.A. is probably a high-probability target too, but wait a minute, Kerry will carry California too!
In one sense you have to tip your hat to Karl Rove. He has taken an issue with practically zero applicability to the true Republican base (i.e. terrorism as applies to people in mad rural areas) and has come damn close to getting Bush elected with it.
On the other hand, we ought to be furious at Kerry for not calling Bush out on this. Americans do face a serious threat from foreign terror attacks, but it is naive to think that the threat is spread equally across our geographic scope.
If people, like me, who work in a skyscraper in Manhattan are comfortable with John Kerry's approach to combatting terrorism, then what in the world is the middle of the country so worried about?
(This point may take a minute to get across, but I think it is important enough to bear with me here).
Consider the following:
1. The consistently "blue" (i.e. Kerry) states are New York, California, Massachusetts, Maryland, the District of Columbia, etc. In other words, the northeast and California.
2. The consistently "red" (i.e. Bush) states are predominantly in the south and the mid-west (the "heartland," if you will), Kansas, the Dakotas, Montana, Mississippi, Arkansas, etc., etc.
3. Perhaps the most central theme to George Bush's campaign is his ability and determination to protect the United States from another terror attack (by staying on the offensive, hunting down terrorists, etc.).
4. Why, in the world, does this theme play so effectively in states where there is NO CHANCE that there will be a terrorist attack? Is some redneck in Louisiana really that concerned about Ayman Al-Zawahiri taking out the French Quarter? Is Al-Qaeda seriously considering an attack on a South Dakota cornfield? Of course not.
Watch out Kansas, threat level has been raised to Code Red!
5. Where, I might ask, is it most likely that a terrorist attack will occur(indeed, where are the only American cities where Al-Qaeda has ever attacked)? Why, New York and D.C., of course, where JOHN KERRY enjoys his largest lead anywhere in the country. Okay, okay, L.A. is probably a high-probability target too, but wait a minute, Kerry will carry California too!
In one sense you have to tip your hat to Karl Rove. He has taken an issue with practically zero applicability to the true Republican base (i.e. terrorism as applies to people in mad rural areas) and has come damn close to getting Bush elected with it.
On the other hand, we ought to be furious at Kerry for not calling Bush out on this. Americans do face a serious threat from foreign terror attacks, but it is naive to think that the threat is spread equally across our geographic scope.
If people, like me, who work in a skyscraper in Manhattan are comfortable with John Kerry's approach to combatting terrorism, then what in the world is the middle of the country so worried about?
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