Wednesday, August 02, 2006
The Mets And The National League
Yesterday was American League, so today we'll do National. I think this is a much shorter story because there really are not many good teams in the National.
We'll start with the Mets, who are the class of the National League thus far. What I'm most impressed with is not their record, but the way they win games. They are never out of a game, and have had a bumch of comeback wins this year. It doesn't hurt that they play in the NL East, where the other 4 teams are fiarly inept. The Mets are good, but the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, and Nationals are, for the most part, also pretty bad, which helps the Mets win some games. The Mets have the best record in the National League, and each of the reast of the teams in their division is under .500. But the Mets have played well against every team in the National League, which is encouraging.
To date, the Mets have only lost 8 series, 2 of them to American League opponents, so that in itself is pretty impressive. Between Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya (who, incidentally, graduated from the high school I teach at, which is 5 minutes from Shea Stadium) the Mets have really managed to change the culture of that team. Over the past 5 years they Mets have been content with losing and have never really considered themselves contenders in their own division, let alone the NL or the league as a whole. Since Randoph/Minaya, they've turned into a team who trusts its GM to acquire quality guys and has followed their manager's lead in terms of showcasing a winning attitude.
They've made some great free agent pick ups in Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Paul Lo Duca. They've also picked up some real character guys from the free agent market in Jose Valentin, who has essentially taken over the second base position, and Endy Chavez who's a great outfielder and a pretty good hitter, especially in clutch situations as it turns out. Let's also not discount what Julio Franco brings to the team in the clubhouse and on the field, where he's hitting well despite his limited action.
They made a trade for Carlos Delgado the year after he turned them down to play for the same amount of money with the Marlins, and he's come in and played well. The Jae Seo for Duaner Sanchez trade was very good, even though I thought Seo had a ton of potential. Sanchez is now out for the year after separating his shoulder in a car crash, so their bullpen has to pick up the slack. I didn't like the Kris Benson for Jorge Julio trade at all, and it turns out that most of us were right. They've basically turned Kris Benson into El Duque, a trade up of about 10 years. Interestingly, though, the throw away guy in that trade, John Maine, has had two or three really good starts in a row for the Mets, including a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago.
Most impressively though, is how they've brought up the guys from their farm system in inserted them into the lineup at just the right time. Jose Reyes in reality probably came up a little too early a few years back when he was, I believe, 19 years old. He went through a couple seasons of mediocre play and lingering injuries. For the last two seasons, however, he's turned into a very good leadoff hitter, though his on base percentage could be higher, and one of the best shortstops in the National League, even the league as a whole. I don't think any infielder has a stronger arm than him. If he wasn't a shortstop, he could be one of the better center fielders in the game. David Wright just continues to deliver in clutch situations. He's got one of the best swings in the game. There's no wasted movement, even in his legs. His head is still the whole time, and he can hit to all fields. In fact, at least half of his home runs go to right-center field. He's hitting .311 right now and was leading the team in batting average until Paul Lo Duca decided to hit .410 in the month of July. He was also leading the team in RBIs until recently when Beltran has gone nuts over the last two weeks.
Reyes and Wright are their two main young players, but they've built on more than just them. They are in the process of working Lastings Milledge into their lineup, and have enough faith in Chavez and him to platoon in right field that they traded Xavier Nady for a couple relief pitchers to replace Duaner Sanchez. Milledge is very raw, and a little too cocky at this point, but he's clearly talented and will, in all likelihood, be the Mets every day left fielder next year. I'd like to see him shorten his swing a little bit, but I would assume the Mets hitting coaches have more of a say than I do on his plate approach.
The Mets were also recently forced, basically, to bring up their best pitching prospect, Mike Pelfrey, and insert him into the rotation. He's looked good in his 4 starts, but would probably be better served in the minor leagues this year.
The Mets will certainly make the playoffs, the only question is whether their pitching can bring them through to the pennant, and even less likely, the World Series. Pedro Martinez had a month and a half off, which is great for the team considering they actually managed to lengthen their lead in the division while he was out, so we can assume he'll be fresh through a playoff run. Tom Glavine has been solid this year and I like him in a playoff series. Incidentally, look for Glavine to be with the Mets next year when he will almost certainly pick up his 300th win, something no one saw coming after his terrible first season with the Mets. I'm inclined to think that El Duque will pitch well in the playoffs if he's given the opportunity, just given his history, and his craftiness, and going against a number 3 or 4 National League starter in a playoff series would have to be to his advantage. Trachsel is nothing if he's not consistent, and all you can ask in the regular season. As I say, I'd be inclined to slot in El Duque in his #3 slot in the playoffs, so I don't know what his role might be in October.
The rest of the season may be a showcase for Maine and Pelfrey to see what we've really got with those two guys, especially since it seems very likely that the Mets will win the division. The Phillies, the current second place team, essentailly gave up at the trade deadline by dealing Abreu and Lidle to the Yankees. The Braves just don't have enough this year, and the Marlins and Nationals are not going to make that run.
You could have made an argument that David Wright was the MVP of the National League in April and May. It wouldn't have been a winning argument, as Albert Pujols was a little better than everyone else in baseball during that time, but he's since been on the DL and the Cardinals have not been as impressive as the Mets. It's clear at this point in the season that the only MVP candidate in the NL is Carlos Beltran. He's leading the league in RBIs with 96 right now. Beltran is second in home runs with 33, behind only Ryan Howard with 36 and tied with Albert Pujols. Beltran is also a great center fielder, a very good base stealer, and has amazingly been the best player in the Mets lineup. I say amazingly given his mediocre 2005 and the fact that Carlos Delgado and David Wright both have the potential to be the driving force in the lineup.
What is a little distressing about Beltran is that he's hitting .348 on the road and only .216 at home. Also, 22 of his 33 home runs have come away from Shea. He's got 69 RBIs on the road and only 27 at home. To date they've played 46 home games and 48 away games. This disparity goes beyond just statistical chance. Something is definitely going on here either with the fans stressing him out or him just not liking Shea Stadium. I am officially concerned, especially given that the Mets will most likely have the home field advantage through their playoff run.
I love Paul Lo Duca at the number 2 spot. At the beginning of the season I was begging for Lo Duca to be moved down in the lineup past Cliff Floyd and for everyone else to jump a spot, putting Beltran 2, Delgado 3, Wright 4, and Floyd 5, but I was clearly wrong. Lo Duca simply does not strike out. He's got 21 Ks in 334 at bats this year, and unless I'm mistaken, he's got the best at bats to strike out ratio in the league. As I mentioned before, he's also been on a tear recently, hitting .410 in July. He's currently the team's batting average leader, at .314, and puts the ball in play just about every time. With Reyes in front of him on the basepaths, Lo Duca fits in perfectly at the number two spot.
So what about the league in general. As for individual guys, I'll repeat myself in saying that Beltran is my choice for league MVP at this moment. If all else stays equal and the Mets finish with the best record in the league, then I think he has to win it. The other cnadidates are Ryan Howard, who is having a great year for a bad team, and Albert Pujols who is having a great year for a very good team. It's entirely possible that Pujols will pull ahead in the race in August and September and if he does then he will win. He missed about three weeks of the season and he's still in the top 5 in both the RBI and HR races and is in the top 10 in batting average. So while Beltran is currently in the lead, Pujols may come away with it again. I don't see Ryan Howard winning it, but he's on the list. Other guys with an outside shot would be Lance Berkman, David Wright, and Chase Utley, but only if he can keep up this hitting streak into the 40s. Even then, Utley would have to stay red hot through September so people don't forget about him.
Let's take the Mets and the Cardinals as a given for the playoffs. You may not be ready to ink in the Cardinals, but they'll make it, so let's not argue. After them, my picks are going to be Cincinnati via the wild card and Arizona out of the NL Worst, I mean West. I'd like to say that San Diego will win the West, but I can't. Arizona has Brandon Webb pitching and some solid veteran guys who will probably pull them to victory in September. San Diego has some key injuries also and they'll probably fade at the end of the season. Colorado can't overcome the away from home disadvantage and the only ones who don't know that the Dodgers are finished is the Dodgers.
I think this would set up a New York vs. Cincinnati first round playoff matchup since New York vs. Arizona would be impossible because it would set up St. Louis vs. Cincinnati which is not allowed in the first round because they're in the same division. That was a convoluted sentence. I would have to assume that the Mets and Cardinals would meet for the pennant and though I could see the Cardinals winning, I would pick the Mets.
Bottom line, the NL pennant is the Mets' to lose at this point and the only thing that would lose it for them would be pitching matchups in the playoffs, either becasue of their short starting rotation or their bullpen, which is suddenly not as good without Duaner Sanchez. By the way, even though it's supposed to be pronounced doo-ahh-ner, it's way more fun to say dwayne-er.
We'll start with the Mets, who are the class of the National League thus far. What I'm most impressed with is not their record, but the way they win games. They are never out of a game, and have had a bumch of comeback wins this year. It doesn't hurt that they play in the NL East, where the other 4 teams are fiarly inept. The Mets are good, but the Phillies, Braves, Marlins, and Nationals are, for the most part, also pretty bad, which helps the Mets win some games. The Mets have the best record in the National League, and each of the reast of the teams in their division is under .500. But the Mets have played well against every team in the National League, which is encouraging.
To date, the Mets have only lost 8 series, 2 of them to American League opponents, so that in itself is pretty impressive. Between Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya (who, incidentally, graduated from the high school I teach at, which is 5 minutes from Shea Stadium) the Mets have really managed to change the culture of that team. Over the past 5 years they Mets have been content with losing and have never really considered themselves contenders in their own division, let alone the NL or the league as a whole. Since Randoph/Minaya, they've turned into a team who trusts its GM to acquire quality guys and has followed their manager's lead in terms of showcasing a winning attitude.
They've made some great free agent pick ups in Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Paul Lo Duca. They've also picked up some real character guys from the free agent market in Jose Valentin, who has essentially taken over the second base position, and Endy Chavez who's a great outfielder and a pretty good hitter, especially in clutch situations as it turns out. Let's also not discount what Julio Franco brings to the team in the clubhouse and on the field, where he's hitting well despite his limited action.
They made a trade for Carlos Delgado the year after he turned them down to play for the same amount of money with the Marlins, and he's come in and played well. The Jae Seo for Duaner Sanchez trade was very good, even though I thought Seo had a ton of potential. Sanchez is now out for the year after separating his shoulder in a car crash, so their bullpen has to pick up the slack. I didn't like the Kris Benson for Jorge Julio trade at all, and it turns out that most of us were right. They've basically turned Kris Benson into El Duque, a trade up of about 10 years. Interestingly, though, the throw away guy in that trade, John Maine, has had two or three really good starts in a row for the Mets, including a complete game shutout a couple weeks ago.
Most impressively though, is how they've brought up the guys from their farm system in inserted them into the lineup at just the right time. Jose Reyes in reality probably came up a little too early a few years back when he was, I believe, 19 years old. He went through a couple seasons of mediocre play and lingering injuries. For the last two seasons, however, he's turned into a very good leadoff hitter, though his on base percentage could be higher, and one of the best shortstops in the National League, even the league as a whole. I don't think any infielder has a stronger arm than him. If he wasn't a shortstop, he could be one of the better center fielders in the game. David Wright just continues to deliver in clutch situations. He's got one of the best swings in the game. There's no wasted movement, even in his legs. His head is still the whole time, and he can hit to all fields. In fact, at least half of his home runs go to right-center field. He's hitting .311 right now and was leading the team in batting average until Paul Lo Duca decided to hit .410 in the month of July. He was also leading the team in RBIs until recently when Beltran has gone nuts over the last two weeks.
Reyes and Wright are their two main young players, but they've built on more than just them. They are in the process of working Lastings Milledge into their lineup, and have enough faith in Chavez and him to platoon in right field that they traded Xavier Nady for a couple relief pitchers to replace Duaner Sanchez. Milledge is very raw, and a little too cocky at this point, but he's clearly talented and will, in all likelihood, be the Mets every day left fielder next year. I'd like to see him shorten his swing a little bit, but I would assume the Mets hitting coaches have more of a say than I do on his plate approach.
The Mets were also recently forced, basically, to bring up their best pitching prospect, Mike Pelfrey, and insert him into the rotation. He's looked good in his 4 starts, but would probably be better served in the minor leagues this year.
The Mets will certainly make the playoffs, the only question is whether their pitching can bring them through to the pennant, and even less likely, the World Series. Pedro Martinez had a month and a half off, which is great for the team considering they actually managed to lengthen their lead in the division while he was out, so we can assume he'll be fresh through a playoff run. Tom Glavine has been solid this year and I like him in a playoff series. Incidentally, look for Glavine to be with the Mets next year when he will almost certainly pick up his 300th win, something no one saw coming after his terrible first season with the Mets. I'm inclined to think that El Duque will pitch well in the playoffs if he's given the opportunity, just given his history, and his craftiness, and going against a number 3 or 4 National League starter in a playoff series would have to be to his advantage. Trachsel is nothing if he's not consistent, and all you can ask in the regular season. As I say, I'd be inclined to slot in El Duque in his #3 slot in the playoffs, so I don't know what his role might be in October.
The rest of the season may be a showcase for Maine and Pelfrey to see what we've really got with those two guys, especially since it seems very likely that the Mets will win the division. The Phillies, the current second place team, essentailly gave up at the trade deadline by dealing Abreu and Lidle to the Yankees. The Braves just don't have enough this year, and the Marlins and Nationals are not going to make that run.
You could have made an argument that David Wright was the MVP of the National League in April and May. It wouldn't have been a winning argument, as Albert Pujols was a little better than everyone else in baseball during that time, but he's since been on the DL and the Cardinals have not been as impressive as the Mets. It's clear at this point in the season that the only MVP candidate in the NL is Carlos Beltran. He's leading the league in RBIs with 96 right now. Beltran is second in home runs with 33, behind only Ryan Howard with 36 and tied with Albert Pujols. Beltran is also a great center fielder, a very good base stealer, and has amazingly been the best player in the Mets lineup. I say amazingly given his mediocre 2005 and the fact that Carlos Delgado and David Wright both have the potential to be the driving force in the lineup.
What is a little distressing about Beltran is that he's hitting .348 on the road and only .216 at home. Also, 22 of his 33 home runs have come away from Shea. He's got 69 RBIs on the road and only 27 at home. To date they've played 46 home games and 48 away games. This disparity goes beyond just statistical chance. Something is definitely going on here either with the fans stressing him out or him just not liking Shea Stadium. I am officially concerned, especially given that the Mets will most likely have the home field advantage through their playoff run.
I love Paul Lo Duca at the number 2 spot. At the beginning of the season I was begging for Lo Duca to be moved down in the lineup past Cliff Floyd and for everyone else to jump a spot, putting Beltran 2, Delgado 3, Wright 4, and Floyd 5, but I was clearly wrong. Lo Duca simply does not strike out. He's got 21 Ks in 334 at bats this year, and unless I'm mistaken, he's got the best at bats to strike out ratio in the league. As I mentioned before, he's also been on a tear recently, hitting .410 in July. He's currently the team's batting average leader, at .314, and puts the ball in play just about every time. With Reyes in front of him on the basepaths, Lo Duca fits in perfectly at the number two spot.
So what about the league in general. As for individual guys, I'll repeat myself in saying that Beltran is my choice for league MVP at this moment. If all else stays equal and the Mets finish with the best record in the league, then I think he has to win it. The other cnadidates are Ryan Howard, who is having a great year for a bad team, and Albert Pujols who is having a great year for a very good team. It's entirely possible that Pujols will pull ahead in the race in August and September and if he does then he will win. He missed about three weeks of the season and he's still in the top 5 in both the RBI and HR races and is in the top 10 in batting average. So while Beltran is currently in the lead, Pujols may come away with it again. I don't see Ryan Howard winning it, but he's on the list. Other guys with an outside shot would be Lance Berkman, David Wright, and Chase Utley, but only if he can keep up this hitting streak into the 40s. Even then, Utley would have to stay red hot through September so people don't forget about him.
Let's take the Mets and the Cardinals as a given for the playoffs. You may not be ready to ink in the Cardinals, but they'll make it, so let's not argue. After them, my picks are going to be Cincinnati via the wild card and Arizona out of the NL Worst, I mean West. I'd like to say that San Diego will win the West, but I can't. Arizona has Brandon Webb pitching and some solid veteran guys who will probably pull them to victory in September. San Diego has some key injuries also and they'll probably fade at the end of the season. Colorado can't overcome the away from home disadvantage and the only ones who don't know that the Dodgers are finished is the Dodgers.
I think this would set up a New York vs. Cincinnati first round playoff matchup since New York vs. Arizona would be impossible because it would set up St. Louis vs. Cincinnati which is not allowed in the first round because they're in the same division. That was a convoluted sentence. I would have to assume that the Mets and Cardinals would meet for the pennant and though I could see the Cardinals winning, I would pick the Mets.
Bottom line, the NL pennant is the Mets' to lose at this point and the only thing that would lose it for them would be pitching matchups in the playoffs, either becasue of their short starting rotation or their bullpen, which is suddenly not as good without Duaner Sanchez. By the way, even though it's supposed to be pronounced doo-ahh-ner, it's way more fun to say dwayne-er.
# posted by ChuckJerry : 8/02/2006 01:42:00 PM
