The Arbitrary ChuckJerry

Here's my basic wrap up of the American League through July, conveniently the trading deadline. Basically just trying to start up a little discussion, so let's get some comments here, people.

Let's start with the Yankees. It has become quite apparent that many Yankee fans are just posers. They don't really like baseball, nor do they understand the game. They just want to be able to say that they are Yankee fans. I guess that's been obvious for a while now, as the Yankees were the trendy team to like over the last decade, but it's just gotten out of hand this year. The Yankee posers are easy to spot because they are the ones booing A-Rod whenever he doesn't get a hit.

If you are under the impression that Alex Rodriguez has underachieved in the time he's been with the Yankees, and that you need to let him know by booing him, then you suck, and you should get a hobby other than going to Yankee games. In A-Rod's first year with the Yankees he had an "off season" and hit .286 with 36 HRs and 106 RBIs, a great year for anyone else. In his second year he hit .321 with 48 HRs and 130 RBIs and won the MVP award. This year he's noticably down from those figures, but is on pace to hit about 35 HRs and get 110 RBIs, again a year that would be great for most people. A-Rod is clearly very sensitive, and if you were a Yankee fan and were actually interested in the Yankees winning, you would encourage him through his slump and not push him deeper into it.

I'm not saying that you don't have to right to boo, but if you're booing A-Rod after every at bat, then you should be aware that you're doing more harm than good, and the Yankees will be worse off for it. A-Rod is not clutch, we know that, but hounding him until he delivers is not going to work. He will not ever deliver under that pressure.

It's not like A-Rod has left the team out in the cold. He's was the AL player of the month in May of *this year* and has gone cold since then, but is still, as I say, having a year that would be great for most players. Let my man play the game and in the end, the numbers will be there.

Here's my point, Jason Giambi is currently hitting .248 with 30HRs and 80 RBIs and everyone is in love with him. These numbers are essentially equal with A-Rod's, and Giambi is ridiculously overpaid as well, but we ain't booing Jason. We cheer him every time he hits a home run and just sit on our hands every time he hits a ground ball into the lefty shift, which is a lot more frequent than the HRs.

As for the Yankees as a whole, I really like where they are right now. They've had a lot of adversity and are still right in the mix for both the division and the wild card. If I were a Boston fan I would be upset that they didn't have a bigger lead in the division at this point in the year, especially given the Yankees penchant for having great Septembers and winning the division. I really like Melky Cabrera and I'm glad he's come on this season. Johnny Damon is solid at leadoff, Bernie Williams has done way more than you could have asked from him at the beginning of the season, and even the guys they brought in as replacements have been delivering of late. Aaron Guiel and Nick Green, both recent pickups have filled in well, and now they've filled in a lineup spot by picking up Bobby Abreu from the Phillies and maybe a rotation spot by grabbing Cory Lidle in the same deal. I like Andy Phillips at first base, and I wish he would hit a little more, but he's been hot and cold, not completely inept, which at least gives us some hope.

We've been too busy booing A-Rod to notice that Robinson Cano has been out for two months now with a hamstring injury. It doesn't hurt that Miguel Cairo is a way above average fill-in, but Cano has proven that he's a .320 hitter and would really add some punch to the bottom of the lineup these days.

At this point I really only have faith in Mike Mussina and Chien Ming Wang in the starting rotation. Both of these guys, though, are almost automatic, Wang especially in recent days (Edwina...had a feeling). Randy Johnson is more hot than cold, and he'll win maybe 16-18 games, which is all you can ask for a 42 year old guy who never really learned how to pitch. I'm hoping Lidle can bring some stability to the rotation, but we'll see how that works out. Jaret Wright is good for a solid 5 innigs every start, which is good if the bullpen is rested, but a disaster otherwise. I can't imagine that Sidney Ponson will add anything worthwhile.

I can see a scenario where Matsui and Sheffield come back before the end of the season, which would make their lineup Damon, Jeter, Giambi, A-Rod, Sheffield, Matsui, Abreu, Posada, Cano. That is really just unfair. Also keep in mind that they would have Melky Cabrera and Bernie Williams off the bench, along with Cairo, Guiel, Crosby, Green. In this scenario Sheffield would probably DH and Giambi would play first base. Abreu could DH and Sheffield could play right field, too. There would probably be some shaking up of the actual order to get the lefty/righty thing going, but shit, that's really just an All-Star lineup. Even if Shefield doesn't come back, the lineup is something akin to this with Bernie or Cabrera in one of those spots.

You could make an argument that Derek Jeter is the American League MVP this year. I love Derek Jeter, like most New Yorkers do, but I've always been realistic in my belief that Jeter was not necessarily the best player in the league, he was just a winner. This year, though, he's really carrying that team. And what's amazing is that he's doing it really quietly. My man is currently second in batting at .354, has 65 RBIs and 69 runs from the number 2 spot in the lineup. He might get 100 RBIs and 100 runs, which is one hell of an accomplishment. He's also got 21 stolen bases right now, and may end up with about 35. He's a solid shortstop, and a great leader.

Who are the other candidates for MVP in the American League? The one that jumps out is David Ortiz, who is tearing shit down from the plate, and clearly deserves the award from a batting standpoint. The problem is the he's Boston's DH, and doesn't play the field, and that will lose him some points with the guys who vote. Again, that's not to say he doesn't deserve it, but the reality is that he will lose some points. Jim Thome is another candidate, but is also a DH, and isn't even as deserving as David Ortiz, especially recently. I really can't think of another candidate. Maybe Jermaine Dye. Actually he's definitely a candidate, but if the White Sox fall apart, and it's looking like they might, then he'll fall out of contention. Joe Mauer in Minnesota made some noise with his batting average, but is down to .368, and as a catcher will break down at the end of the season. Justin Morneau in Minnesota is also having a really good year. He's got the numbers, but probably not the name recognition to win it without blowing people away.

I'm not really in favor of the MVP being a DH, but John Kruk made a good point last night. He said he's also not in favor of the DH winning it, but if his numbers are so far ahead of everyone else, then he's just got to win it. That may be the category David Ortiz falls into this year. I mean, he's already got 105 RBIs, versus Morneau's 88 in second place. He might get 170 RBIs, which would be absolutely sick. And he's also probably going to win 2/3 of the triple crown by a large margin. Not to mention his penchant for getting walk off RBIs (can you let Manny beat you once guys?).

At this point I see Detroit, Boston, New York, and Oakland in playoffs. I know that's a bit of a cop out because those are the 4 teams currently leading their divisions (and the Yankees are winning the wild card race), but that's really my feeling. I would guess that the Yankees are going to win the division by 2 or 3 games with a strong September, Boston will win the wild card over a slumping White Sox team. The real unknown here is Minnesota. Especially if the White Sox fall apart, they could easily get into wild card position and steal it from either Boston or New York. Minnesota has the best 1-2 starters in the league with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano (though Mussina and Wang are up there). Detroit also has great pitching, which is what's carrying them right now.

So let's not be too surprised, Yankee fans, if they are on the outside looking in come October. I don't think it will happen, they're really starting play well, but it's definitely a possibility.

Oakland and Anaheim are essentially equal at this point, so if you told me that the Angels won that division instead of Oakland I woudln't be surprised.

Based on pitching, I'd have to assume that either Detroit of Minnesota would win the AL pennant. Minnesota will have a much harder time making the playoffs than winning once they get there given their short series pitching advantage. Detroit will definitely make the playoffs, but their lack of experience might hurt them once they get there. But their pitching is almost as strong as Minnesota. Along the same lines, the Yankees have a short series advantage going three deep with Mussina, Wang, and Johnson, who, even with all his ups and downs, is a great choice for a #3 starter in the playoffs.

The best playoff matchups may end up being impossible given that Detroit, Boston, New York, and Minnesota can't all make the playoffs. I don't want to discount the Whte Sox either, but I think Minnesota will catch them.

I guess that's it. I've spent a lot of time on this already. Bottom line, I like where the Yankees are, but it's really all up in the air right now. Minnesota is the team to watch. Let's hope that Boston starts to slump, which they have yet to do this year at all.